Silicon Wafer and Solar Cell Prices Continue to Rise, Supply Remains Tight [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Briefing]

SMM, January 3:

Silica

Prices

This week, silica prices remained stable. Entering January, subsequent transportation capacity is expected to tighten gradually, coupled with potential restrictions on mining activities. Downstream silicon metal raw material procurement before the Chinese New Year has mostly concluded, and recent demand for silica from downstream silicon enterprises has been relatively low. Overall, demand and order activity at mine-mouths are expected to recover significantly only in February-March next year. Currently, the mine-mouth price of low-grade silica in Yunnan is 340-360 yuan/mt. The mine-mouth price of high-grade silica is 360-390 yuan/mt in Inner Mongolia, 420-450 yuan/mt in Hubei, and 440-460 yuan/mt in Jiangxi.

Supply and Demand

Supply: With the addition of numerous newly established mining rights in 2024, the overall supply of silica production remains ample.

Demand: Short-term silica demand continues to fluctuate downward, with a significant recovery in demand activity likely to occur in February-March next year.

Silicon Metal

Prices

Spot silicon metal prices remained in a low consolidation phase. Yesterday, the price of above-standard #553 silicon metal in east China was 11,200-11,300 yuan/mt, while #441 silicon metal was priced at 11,500-11,700 yuan/mt. In the futures market, the Si2502 contract traded sideways yesterday and closed with a slight gain. Transaction sentiment in the silicon metal market remained average, with downstream purchasing as needed.

Production

According to SMM data, China's silicon metal production in December was 331,600 mt, down 73,100 mt or 18.1% MoM, and down 5.2% YoY. The total annual production for 2024 is expected to reach 4.8988 million mt, an increase of 1.098 million mt or 28.9% YoY. In January 2025, China's silicon metal operating rate is expected to remain weak, with monthly production continuing to decline.

Inventory

Social Inventory: SMM statistics show that as of December 27, the national social inventory of silicon metal totaled 538,000 mt, up 6,000 mt WoW. Among this, general warehouse inventory was 155,000 mt, up 3,000 mt WoW, while inventory in delivery warehouses was 383,000 mt (including unregistered warehouse warrants and spot cargo), also up 3,000 mt WoW.

Silicon Wafer

Prices

The market price for N-type 18X silicon wafers was 1.1-1.15 yuan/piece, while N-type 210RN silicon wafers were priced at 1.2-1.25 yuan/piece. This week, silicon wafer prices continued to rise, with tight supply and transaction centers shifting upward across multiple sizes.

Production

Silicon wafer production in January continues to increase, with top-tier enterprises generally inclined to expand production. On January 2, two consecutive earthquakes occurred in Yinchuan, Ningxia, impacting local silicon wafer production. January's silicon wafer output may fall short of expectations.

Inventory

Inventory levels continued to decline, now falling below 20 GW. Market supply remains tight.

Solar Cell

Prices

The price of high-efficiency PERC182 solar cells (23.2% efficiency and above) was 0.31 yuan/W; PERC210 solar cells were priced at approximately 0.28-0.28 yuan/W; Topcon183 solar cells (25% efficiency and above) were priced at approximately 0.28-0.29 yuan/W; Topcon210RN solar cells were priced at 0.27-0.275 yuan/W; and Topcon210 solar cells were priced at 0.285-0.29 yuan/W. HJT210 half-cell solar cells were priced at 0.38-0.43 yuan/W. Prices for all models of solar cells generally increased.

Production

Most solar cell production bases plan to rotate shifts during the Chinese New Year holiday, with production lines continuing to operate without halting. A few manufacturers will suspend production for three weeks for line repairs, maintenance, and upgrades during the holiday, but the overall impact on supply is relatively small. In January 2025, solar cell production is expected to decrease by 7.36 GW.

Inventory

By month-end, solar cell manufacturers effectively reduced inventory levels, with further declines observed. Some models remain in undersupply, mainly due to downstream stocking activities.

PV Film

Prices

PV-Grade EVA/POE

The transaction price of PV-grade EVA was 10,300-10,700 yuan/mt. The domestic delivery-to-factory price of PV-grade POE was approximately 12,000-13,500 yuan/mt, with POE prices remaining stable.

PV Film

Currently, the mainstream price for 420g transparent EVA film is 5.29-5.46 yuan/m², 420g white EVA film is 5.67-6.05 yuan/m², 380g EPE film is 5.79-5.89 yuan/m², and 380g POE film is 6.84-7.22 yuan/m².

Production

The planned production of PV-grade EVA in January is approximately 110,000 mt. The planned production of PV film in January is approximately 350 million m². Orders have decreased, leading to reduced production schedules.

Inventory

Currently, upstream inventory levels are at conventional levels. Due to the Chinese New Year break, film production has been brought forward, and pre-holiday stocking has resulted in tight spot supply in the market. With the end of the concentrated procurement cycle, module production schedules are expected to decrease, leading to lower film operating rates and a subsequent decline in EVA orders.